“If the judgment of experts is not reliable, then, probably, neither is anyone elses. This suggests that it is unjustified to be highly certain of AGI being near, but also of it not no being near. [O]ur brains are known to think about uncertain, abstract ideas like AGI in “far mode,” which also makes it feel like AGI must be temporally distance, [b]ut something being uncertain is not strong evidence that it is far away. Thus, we shouldn’t be highly confident that AGI will arrive this century, and we shouldn’t be highly confident that it won’t.”

— Kaj Sotala, Roman V. Yampolskiy, Responses to Catastrophic AGI Risk: A Survey (2015)